FPL fixture difficulty rating (FDR)
Adjusted Fixture Difficulty Rating
Difficulty, expected goals and clean sheet chance for each team's next six fixtures, from our own backtested model. A more reactive read than FPL's own FDR, which updates rarely.
Difficulty
Sorted easiest run to hardest. The number is the actual 1-5 rating; color is just a supporting cue. Every rating comes from our model: attack and defence ratings for every club, adjusted for opponent and home advantage and updated as results and team news come in. The next ~2 gameweeks (solid badges) are the sharpest; fixtures further out (dashed border) are less certain. Tested on three past seasons, it predicted results 3-6 gameweeks ahead clearly better than FPL's own FDR.
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | ① LEE | ② NFO (a) | ① EVE | ② LIV (a) | ① HUL | ① NEW (a) |
| Man City | ③ LIV (a) | ① IPS | ② AVL (a) | ② BHA | ② NFO (a) | ① FUL |
| Chelsea | ② BOU | ③ EVE (a) | ① TOT | ② MUN | ② SUN (a) | ② LEE |
| Liverpool | ③ MCI | ③ BRE (a) | ② BHA | ④ ARS | ② CRY (a) | ② MUN |
| Brentford | ③ AVL (a) | ④ LIV | ② HUL (a) | ② NFO | ④ BHA (a) | ② EVE |
| Man Utd | ② TOT | ③ LEE (a) | ② BOU | ④ CHE (a) | ② AVL | ④ LIV (a) |
| Brighton | ③ SUN (a) | ② CRY | ④ LIV (a) | ④ MCI (a) | ③ BRE | ② HUL (a) |
| Aston Villa | ④ BRE | ④ NEW (a) | ④ MCI | ② FUL | ④ MUN (a) | ② SUN |
| Fulham | ③ IPS (a) | ② HUL | ③ COV (a) | ④ AVL (a) | ③ NEW | ⑤ MCI (a) |
| Newcastle | ③ COV (a) | ③ AVL | ③ CRY (a) | ③ EVE | ③ FUL (a) | ⑤ ARS |
| Spurs | ⑤ MUN (a) | ② COV | ⑤ CHE (a) | ② CRY | ④ LEE (a) | ② IPS |
| Bournemouth | ⑤ CHE (a) | ③ SUN | ④ MUN (a) | ③ LEE | ③ IPS (a) | ③ NFO |
| Coventry City | ④ NEW | ⑤ TOT (a) | ③ FUL | ③ SUN | ④ EVE (a) | ③ CRY |
| Crystal Palace | ③ NFO | ⑤ BHA (a) | ③ NEW | ④ TOT (a) | ④ LIV | ③ COV (a) |
| Everton | ③ HUL (a) | ④ CHE | ⑤ ARS (a) | ④ NEW (a) | ② COV | ④ BRE (a) |
| Ipswich Town | ④ FUL | ⑤ MCI (a) | ③ NFO | ③ HUL (a) | ③ BOU | ④ TOT (a) |
| Sunderland | ④ BHA | ④ BOU (a) | ③ LEE | ③ COV (a) | ④ CHE | ④ AVL (a) |
| Leeds | ⑤ ARS (a) | ④ MUN | ③ SUN (a) | ③ BOU (a) | ③ TOT | ⑤ CHE (a) |
| Nott'm Forest | ④ CRY (a) | ⑤ ARS | ③ IPS (a) | ④ BRE (a) | ④ MCI | ④ BOU (a) |
| Hull City | ④ EVE | ⑤ FUL (a) | ④ BRE | ③ IPS | ⑤ ARS (a) | ④ BHA |
Expected goals
Sorted best attacking run to worst. xG = expected goals scored. Dashed = further ahead, less certain.
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | ② LIV (a) xG 1.60 | ① IPS xG 2.67 | — | — | — | — |
| Arsenal | ① LEE xG 2.04 | ② NFO (a) xG 1.76 | — | — | — | — |
| Chelsea | ① BOU xG 2.01 | ② EVE (a) xG 1.60 | — | — | — | — |
| Man Utd | ② TOT xG 1.95 | ② LEE (a) xG 1.59 | — | — | — | — |
| Brighton | ③ SUN (a) xG 1.47 | ① CRY xG 2.03 | — | — | — | — |
| Spurs | ③ MUN (a) xG 1.26 | ① COV xG 2.10 | — | — | — | — |
| Newcastle | ② COV (a) xG 1.66 | ② AVL xG 1.68 | — | — | — | — |
| Fulham | ③ IPS (a) xG 1.48 | ② HUL xG 1.81 | — | — | — | — |
| Liverpool | ② MCI xG 1.52 | ② BRE (a) xG 1.65 | — | — | — | — |
| Brentford | ② AVL (a) xG 1.50 | ③ LIV xG 1.47 | — | — | — | — |
| Bournemouth | ③ CHE (a) xG 1.30 | ② SUN xG 1.57 | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | ③ HUL (a) xG 1.43 | ③ CHE xG 1.38 | — | — | — | — |
| Aston Villa | ③ BRE xG 1.41 | ③ NEW (a) xG 1.37 | — | — | — | — |
| Sunderland | ③ BHA xG 1.26 | ③ BOU (a) xG 1.19 | — | — | — | — |
| Crystal Palace | ③ NFO xG 1.26 | ③ BHA (a) xG 1.11 | — | — | — | — |
| Coventry City | ③ NEW xG 1.28 | ④ TOT (a) xG 1.03 | — | — | — | — |
| Ipswich Town | ③ FUL xG 1.37 | ④ MCI (a) xG 0.91 | — | — | — | — |
| Leeds | ④ ARS (a) xG 0.86 | ③ MUN xG 1.37 | — | — | — | — |
| Nott'm Forest | ③ CRY (a) xG 1.28 | ④ ARS xG 0.89 | — | — | — | — |
| Hull City | ④ EVE xG 1.04 | ④ FUL (a) xG 1.06 | — | — | — | — |
Expected goals against & clean sheets
Sorted best defensive run to worst. xGA = expected goals conceded, CS = clean sheet probability. Dashed = further ahead, less certain.
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | ② LEE xGA 0.86 · CS 42% | ② NFO (a) xGA 0.89 · CS 41% | — | — | — | — |
| Brighton | ③ SUN (a) xGA 1.26 · CS 28% | ③ CRY xGA 1.11 · CS 33% | — | — | — | — |
| Fulham | ③ IPS (a) xGA 1.37 · CS 26% | ② HUL xGA 1.06 · CS 35% | — | — | — | — |
| Man City | ④ LIV (a) xGA 1.52 · CS 22% | ② IPS xGA 0.91 · CS 40% | — | — | — | — |
| Man Utd | ③ TOT xGA 1.26 · CS 28% | ③ LEE (a) xGA 1.37 · CS 25% | — | — | — | — |
| Everton | ② HUL (a) xGA 1.04 · CS 35% | ④ CHE xGA 1.60 · CS 20% | — | — | — | — |
| Newcastle | ③ COV (a) xGA 1.28 · CS 28% | ③ AVL xGA 1.37 · CS 25% | — | — | — | — |
| Chelsea | ③ BOU xGA 1.30 · CS 27% | ③ EVE (a) xGA 1.38 · CS 25% | — | — | — | — |
| Spurs | ④ MUN (a) xGA 1.95 · CS 14% | ② COV xGA 1.03 · CS 36% | — | — | — | — |
| Nott'm Forest | ③ CRY (a) xGA 1.26 · CS 28% | ④ ARS xGA 1.76 · CS 17% | — | — | — | — |
| Sunderland | ③ BHA xGA 1.47 · CS 23% | ④ BOU (a) xGA 1.57 · CS 21% | — | — | — | — |
| Liverpool | ④ MCI xGA 1.60 · CS 20% | ③ BRE (a) xGA 1.47 · CS 23% | — | — | — | — |
| Brentford | ③ AVL (a) xGA 1.41 · CS 24% | ④ LIV xGA 1.65 · CS 19% | — | — | — | — |
| Aston Villa | ④ BRE xGA 1.50 · CS 22% | ④ NEW (a) xGA 1.68 · CS 19% | — | — | — | — |
| Bournemouth | ⑤ CHE (a) xGA 2.01 · CS 13% | ③ SUN xGA 1.19 · CS 30% | — | — | — | — |
| Hull City | ③ EVE xGA 1.43 · CS 24% | ④ FUL (a) xGA 1.81 · CS 16% | — | — | — | — |
| Crystal Palace | ③ NFO xGA 1.28 · CS 28% | ⑤ BHA (a) xGA 2.03 · CS 13% | — | — | — | — |
| Leeds | ⑤ ARS (a) xGA 2.04 · CS 13% | ④ MUN xGA 1.59 · CS 20% | — | — | — | — |
| Coventry City | ④ NEW xGA 1.66 · CS 19% | ⑤ TOT (a) xGA 2.10 · CS 12% | — | — | — | — |
| Ipswich Town | ③ FUL xGA 1.48 · CS 23% | ⑤ MCI (a) xGA 2.67 · CS 7% | — | — | — | — |