FPL fixture difficulty rating (FDR)
Fixture Difficulty Ticker
Every team's next six fixtures rated 1-5 by our own backtested model, easiest run first. A more reactive read than FPL's own FDR, which updates rarely.
Next 6 fixtures
Sorted easiest run to hardest. The number is the 1-5 rating; color is just a supporting cue. Solid badges (the next ~2 gameweeks) are the sharpest; dashed ones further out are less certain.
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | ① FUL | ④ ARS (a) | ① LEE | ② BRE (a) | ② CHE | ① HUL |
| Arsenal | ② NEW (a) | ③ MCI | ② BRE (a) | ② TOT (a) | ① BOU | ② MUN |
| Brighton | ② HUL (a) | ② NEW | ③ BOU (a) | ③ NFO (a) | ② EVE | ① IPS |
| Liverpool | ② MUN | ③ EVE (a) | ② SUN | ③ CHE (a) | ② LEE | ② TOT |
| Chelsea | ② LEE | ③ NFO (a) | ① CRY | ③ LIV | ⑤ MCI (a) | ② AVL |
| Bournemouth | ③ NFO | ③ FUL (a) | ③ BHA | ① HUL | ⑤ ARS (a) | ② COV |
| Aston Villa | ② SUN | ③ IPS (a) | ③ EVE | ② CRY | ③ COV (a) | ⑤ CHE (a) |
| Man Utd | ⑤ LIV (a) | ③ BRE | ③ NEW (a) | ① COV | ② CRY (a) | ⑤ ARS (a) |
| Spurs | ② IPS | ③ SUN (a) | ③ FUL | ⑤ ARS | ② HUL (a) | ⑤ LIV (a) |
| Leeds | ④ CHE (a) | ② COV | ⑤ MCI (a) | ② IPS | ⑤ LIV (a) | ③ FUL |
| Nott'm Forest | ④ BOU (a) | ④ CHE | ② HUL (a) | ④ BHA | ④ SUN (a) | ③ EVE |
| Brentford | ③ EVE | ④ MUN (a) | ⑤ ARS | ④ MCI | ③ FUL (a) | ③ NEW |
| Crystal Palace | ④ COV (a) | ② HUL | ⑤ CHE (a) | ⑤ AVL (a) | ④ MUN | ④ SUN (a) |
| Everton | ④ BRE (a) | ④ LIV | ④ AVL (a) | ③ FUL | ⑤ BHA (a) | ④ NFO (a) |
| Fulham | ⑤ MCI (a) | ③ BOU | ④ TOT (a) | ④ EVE (a) | ④ BRE | ④ LEE (a) |
| Newcastle | ⑤ ARS | ⑤ BHA (a) | ④ MUN | ③ SUN | ③ IPS (a) | ④ BRE (a) |
| Sunderland | ⑤ AVL (a) | ④ TOT | ⑤ LIV (a) | ④ NEW (a) | ③ NFO | ③ CRY |
| Coventry City | ③ CRY | ⑤ LEE (a) | ③ IPS | ⑤ MUN (a) | ④ AVL | ⑤ BOU (a) |
| Ipswich Town | ⑤ TOT (a) | ④ AVL | ④ COV (a) | ⑤ LEE (a) | ④ NEW | ⑤ BHA (a) |
| Hull City | ⑤ BHA | ④ CRY (a) | ④ NFO | ⑤ BOU (a) | ⑤ TOT | ⑤ MCI (a) |
How the rating works
Every rating comes from the FPL Cat model: attack and defence ratings for every club, adjusted for the opponent and home advantage, and updated as results and team news come in. FPL's own FDR is built from team strength numbers that barely move during the season, so a club that starts well or badly can carry the wrong rating for months. Tested on three past seasons, the FPL Cat model predicted results 3-6 gameweeks ahead clearly better than FPL's FDR.
Picking defenders or a goalkeeper? Their points depend on clean sheets, so check clean sheet odds. For forwards and attacking midfielders, the expected goals page shows which teams should score the most.