Premier League xG table
Expected Goals (xG)
Which teams should score the most in their next six fixtures, and who has been lucky or unlucky against their xG so far.
Expected goals, next 6 fixtures
Sorted best attacking run to worst, from our own backtested model. xG = goals the team is expected to score. Dashed = further ahead, less certain.
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | ② NFO (a) xG 1.92 | ① FUL xG 2.28 | ③ ARS (a) xG 1.22 | ① LEE xG 2.11 | ② BRE (a) xG 1.90 | ① CHE xG 2.06 |
| Arsenal | ③ LIV (a) xG 1.39 | ① HUL xG 2.63 | ② NEW (a) xG 1.94 | ② MCI xG 1.65 | ② BRE (a) xG 1.77 | ② TOT (a) xG 1.84 |
| Man Utd | ② AVL xG 1.62 | ③ LIV (a) xG 1.15 | ② BRE xG 1.75 | ② NEW (a) xG 1.69 | ① COV xG 2.30 | ② CRY (a) xG 1.80 |
| Brighton | ② BRE xG 1.75 | ① HUL (a) xG 2.04 | ② NEW xG 1.85 | ③ BOU (a) xG 1.40 | ③ NFO (a) xG 1.49 | ② EVE xG 1.74 |
| Chelsea | ② SUN (a) xG 1.60 | ② LEE xG 1.75 | ② NFO (a) xG 1.63 | ① CRY xG 2.16 | ② LIV xG 1.67 | ③ MCI (a) xG 1.28 |
| Liverpool | ③ ARS xG 1.27 | ② CRY (a) xG 1.97 | ② MUN xG 1.73 | ② EVE (a) xG 1.69 | ② SUN xG 1.84 | ② CHE (a) xG 1.53 |
| Aston Villa | ③ MUN (a) xG 1.45 | ② SUN xG 1.61 | ② IPS (a) xG 1.67 | ② EVE xG 1.55 | ② CRY xG 1.77 | ② COV (a) xG 1.70 |
| Bournemouth | ② IPS (a) xG 1.72 | ② NFO xG 1.66 | ③ FUL (a) xG 1.44 | ③ BHA xG 1.44 | ① HUL xG 2.05 | ④ ARS (a) xG 0.84 |
| Spurs | ③ LEE (a) xG 1.30 | ② IPS xG 1.96 | ③ SUN (a) xG 1.33 | ② FUL xG 1.71 | ④ ARS xG 1.00 | ② HUL (a) xG 1.83 |
| Everton | ③ NEW (a) xG 1.40 | ② COV xG 1.79 | ③ BRE (a) xG 1.19 | ③ LIV xG 1.26 | ③ AVL (a) xG 1.32 | ② FUL xG 1.51 |
| Brentford | ③ BHA (a) xG 1.30 | ② EVE xG 1.75 | ③ MUN (a) xG 1.36 | ④ ARS xG 1.05 | ③ MCI xG 1.32 | ② FUL (a) xG 1.56 |
| Leeds | ③ TOT xG 1.33 | ③ CHE (a) xG 1.12 | ② COV xG 1.88 | ④ MCI (a) xG 1.00 | ② IPS xG 1.84 | ③ LIV (a) xG 1.14 |
| Newcastle | ③ EVE xG 1.50 | ③ FUL (a) xG 1.37 | ④ ARS xG 1.01 | ③ BHA (a) xG 1.28 | ③ MUN xG 1.47 | ② SUN xG 1.51 |
| Fulham | ② NEW xG 1.62 | ④ MCI (a) xG 0.95 | ③ BOU xG 1.33 | ③ TOT (a) xG 1.24 | ③ EVE (a) xG 1.25 | ③ BRE xG 1.38 |
| Crystal Palace | ③ LIV xG 1.11 | ③ COV (a) xG 1.35 | ② HUL xG 1.72 | ④ CHE (a) xG 1.03 | ③ AVL (a) xG 1.22 | ③ MUN xG 1.21 |
| Nott'm Forest | ③ MCI xG 1.11 | ③ BOU (a) xG 1.11 | ③ CHE xG 1.25 | ② HUL (a) xG 1.56 | ③ BHA xG 1.27 | ③ SUN (a) xG 1.13 |
| Coventry City | ④ EVE (a) xG 1.07 | ② CRY xG 1.52 | ④ LEE (a) xG 0.99 | ② IPS xG 1.53 | ④ MUN (a) xG 0.98 | ③ AVL xG 1.31 |
| Ipswich Town | ③ BOU xG 1.17 | ④ TOT (a) xG 1.05 | ③ AVL xG 1.36 | ③ COV (a) xG 1.40 | ④ LEE (a) xG 1.03 | ③ NEW xG 1.37 |
| Sunderland | ③ CHE xG 1.15 | ③ AVL (a) xG 1.15 | ③ TOT xG 1.27 | ④ LIV (a) xG 0.97 | ③ NEW (a) xG 1.17 | ③ NFO xG 1.25 |
| Hull City | ⑤ ARS (a) xG 0.59 | ④ BHA xG 0.98 | ④ CRY (a) xG 1.05 | ④ NFO xG 1.06 | ④ BOU (a) xG 0.86 | ④ TOT xG 1.07 |
xG table 2026/27
Every match so far: goals scored and conceded against the expected goals (xG) created and allowed. Sorted by xG difference (xG minus xGA), the best measure of how well a team really plays. A positive ± means results have run better than the chances. Bold = a gap of 4+ goals.
| Team | Played | Goals | xG | Attack ± | Conceded | xGA | Defence ± | Net ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 8 | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.2 | +1.2 | +0.3 |
| Man City | 8 | 20 | 16.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 10.8 | +1.8 | +5.1 |
| Bournemouth | 8 | 12 | 14.6 | -2.6 | 13 | 9.3 | -3.7 | -6.3 |
| Brighton | 8 | 23 | 16.6 | +6.4 | 7 | 11.7 | +4.7 | +11.1 |
| Nott'm Forest | 8 | 6 | 13.8 | -7.8 | 10 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -8.8 |
| Liverpool | 8 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | 8 | 9.6 | +1.6 | +0.4 |
| Brentford | 8 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 11.9 | +2.9 | +3.0 |
| Man Utd | 8 | 10 | 13.2 | -3.2 | 13 | 12.1 | -0.9 | -4.1 |
| Fulham | 8 | 8 | 11.6 | -3.6 | 10 | 10.9 | +0.9 | -2.6 |
| Leeds | 8 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 10.6 | +4.6 | +2.8 |
| Chelsea | 8 | 17 | 10.5 | +6.5 | 15 | 11.7 | -3.3 | +3.3 |
| Everton | 8 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 11.5 | +2.5 | +0.6 |
| Spurs | 8 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 9.9 | -0.1 | -0.4 |
| Sunderland | 8 | 6 | 11.5 | -5.5 | 14 | 15.1 | +1.1 | -4.4 |
| Aston Villa | 8 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 12 | 12.8 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Hull City | 8 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 12.2 | +4.2 | +4.8 |
| Coventry City | 8 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 15 | 11.9 | -3.1 | -4.8 |
| Newcastle | 8 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 14 | 13.8 | -0.2 | +2.7 |
| Crystal Palace | 8 | 9 | 11.0 | -2.0 | 19 | 15.9 | -3.1 | -5.1 |
| Ipswich Town | 8 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | 16 | 16.8 | +0.8 | +1.6 |
Over- & underperformance, last 5 matches
Sorted most overperforming first. A positive ± means more finishing or goalkeeping luck that tends to fade; a negative ± means results should improve. Bold = a gap of 2+ goals; smaller gaps over this few games are mostly noise.
| Team | Played | Goals | xG | Attack ± | Conceded | xGA | Defence ± | Net ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 5 | 15 | 9.2 | +5.8 | 2 | 5.7 | +3.7 | +9.5 |
| Man City | 5 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | 7 | 8.1 | +1.1 | +4.0 |
| Ipswich Town | 5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 10.3 | +2.3 | +3.7 |
| Brentford | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 8.2 | +1.2 | +3.1 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 8 | 6.8 | -1.2 | +3.1 |
| Aston Villa | 5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 7.5 | +0.5 | +3.0 |
| Leeds | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 6.0 | +2.0 | +1.9 |
| Spurs | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 4.3 | -0.7 | +1.8 |
| Fulham | 5 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 3 | 4.7 | +1.7 | -0.4 |
| Arsenal | 5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 5.3 | +1.3 | -0.7 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -0.8 |
| Hull City | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 8 | 7.2 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Man Utd | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.9 | +0.9 | -1.6 |
| Coventry City | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 7.2 | -2.8 | -1.6 |
| Newcastle | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 8.3 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| Everton | 5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 6 | 6.9 | +0.9 | -2.3 |
| Crystal Palace | 5 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | 11 | 9.6 | -1.4 | -3.0 |
| Sunderland | 5 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 11 | 11.1 | +0.1 | -3.9 |
| Bournemouth | 5 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 4.5 | -3.5 | -5.8 |
| Nott'm Forest | 5 | 4 | 9.9 | -5.9 | 7 | 5.7 | -1.3 | -7.2 |
About these numbers
Team xG adds up the FPL expected goals of the players who played; xGA is the opponent's xG in the same match. Own goals count as over- or underperformance. The next-fixtures table comes from our model, which rates every club's attack and defence and adjusts for the opponent and home advantage.
Defenders and goalkeepers: see clean sheet odds. The overall run of fixtures is on the fixture difficulty ticker.