FPL clean sheet odds
Clean Sheet Odds GW10
Every Premier League team's chance of keeping a clean sheet, from our own backtested model: this gameweek ranked, then each team's next six fixtures.
Gameweek 10 clean sheet odds
Most likely clean sheet first. xGA = goals the team is expected to concede.
| Team | Opponent | Clean sheet | xGA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | HUL (h) | 55% | 0.59 |
| Everton | COV (h) | 34% | 1.07 |
| Liverpool | CRY (a) | 33% | 1.11 |
| Man City | NFO (a) | 33% | 1.11 |
| Chelsea | SUN (a) | 32% | 1.15 |
| Bournemouth | IPS (a) | 31% | 1.17 |
| Brighton | BRE (h) | 27% | 1.30 |
| Leeds | TOT (h) | 27% | 1.30 |
| Spurs | LEE (a) | 27% | 1.33 |
| Fulham | NEW (h) | 25% | 1.37 |
| Man Utd | AVL (h) | 24% | 1.45 |
| Sunderland | CHE (h) | 20% | 1.60 |
| Newcastle | FUL (a) | 20% | 1.62 |
| Aston Villa | MUN (a) | 20% | 1.62 |
| Ipswich Town | BOU (h) | 18% | 1.72 |
| Brentford | BHA (a) | 17% | 1.75 |
| Coventry City | EVE (a) | 17% | 1.79 |
| Nott'm Forest | MCI (h) | 15% | 1.92 |
| Crystal Palace | LIV (h) | 14% | 1.97 |
| Hull City | ARS (a) | 7% | 2.63 |
Clean sheet chance, next 6 fixtures
Sorted best defensive run to worst (fewest goals expected against). CS = clean sheet chance. Dashed = further ahead, less certain.
① Best② Good③ Average④ Poor⑤ Worst
| Team | Next fixture | +1 | +2 | +3 | +4 | +5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | ③ LIV (a) CS 28% · xGA 1.27 | ① HUL CS 55% · xGA 0.59 | ② NEW (a) CS 36% · xGA 1.01 | ③ MCI CS 30% · xGA 1.22 | ② BRE (a) CS 35% · xGA 1.05 | ② TOT (a) CS 37% · xGA 1.00 |
| Man City | ③ NFO (a) CS 33% · xGA 1.11 | ② FUL CS 39% · xGA 0.95 | ④ ARS (a) CS 19% · xGA 1.65 | ② LEE CS 37% · xGA 1.00 | ③ BRE (a) CS 27% · xGA 1.32 | ③ CHE CS 28% · xGA 1.28 |
| Brighton | ③ BRE CS 27% · xGA 1.30 | ② HUL (a) CS 38% · xGA 0.98 | ③ NEW CS 28% · xGA 1.28 | ③ BOU (a) CS 24% · xGA 1.44 | ③ NFO (a) CS 28% · xGA 1.27 | ③ EVE CS 32% · xGA 1.14 |
| Liverpool | ③ ARS CS 25% · xGA 1.39 | ③ CRY (a) CS 33% · xGA 1.11 | ③ MUN CS 32% · xGA 1.15 | ③ EVE (a) CS 28% · xGA 1.26 | ② SUN CS 38% · xGA 0.97 | ④ CHE (a) CS 19% · xGA 1.67 |
| Spurs | ③ LEE (a) CS 27% · xGA 1.33 | ② IPS CS 35% · xGA 1.05 | ③ SUN (a) CS 28% · xGA 1.27 | ③ FUL CS 29% · xGA 1.24 | ④ ARS CS 16% · xGA 1.84 | ② HUL (a) CS 34% · xGA 1.07 |
| Bournemouth | ③ IPS (a) CS 31% · xGA 1.17 | ③ NFO CS 33% · xGA 1.11 | ③ FUL (a) CS 26% · xGA 1.33 | ③ BHA CS 25% · xGA 1.40 | ② HUL CS 42% · xGA 0.86 | ④ ARS (a) CS 14% · xGA 1.97 |
| Aston Villa | ④ MUN (a) CS 20% · xGA 1.62 | ③ SUN CS 32% · xGA 1.15 | ③ IPS (a) CS 26% · xGA 1.36 | ③ EVE CS 27% · xGA 1.32 | ③ CRY CS 30% · xGA 1.22 | ③ COV (a) CS 27% · xGA 1.31 |
| Chelsea | ③ SUN (a) CS 32% · xGA 1.15 | ③ LEE CS 33% · xGA 1.12 | ③ NFO (a) CS 29% · xGA 1.25 | ② CRY CS 36% · xGA 1.03 | ④ LIV CS 22% · xGA 1.53 | ⑤ MCI (a) CS 13% · xGA 2.06 |
| Man Utd | ③ AVL CS 24% · xGA 1.45 | ④ LIV (a) CS 18% · xGA 1.73 | ③ BRE CS 26% · xGA 1.36 | ③ NEW (a) CS 23% · xGA 1.47 | ② COV CS 38% · xGA 0.98 | ③ CRY (a) CS 30% · xGA 1.21 |
| Everton | ③ NEW (a) CS 22% · xGA 1.50 | ② COV CS 34% · xGA 1.07 | ④ BRE (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.75 | ④ LIV CS 18% · xGA 1.69 | ④ AVL (a) CS 21% · xGA 1.55 | ③ FUL CS 29% · xGA 1.25 |
| Leeds | ③ TOT CS 27% · xGA 1.30 | ④ CHE (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.75 | ② COV CS 37% · xGA 0.99 | ⑤ MCI (a) CS 12% · xGA 2.11 | ② IPS CS 36% · xGA 1.03 | ④ LIV (a) CS 16% · xGA 1.81 |
| Nott'm Forest | ④ MCI CS 15% · xGA 1.92 | ④ BOU (a) CS 19% · xGA 1.66 | ④ CHE CS 20% · xGA 1.63 | ② HUL (a) CS 35% · xGA 1.06 | ③ BHA CS 23% · xGA 1.49 | ③ SUN (a) CS 29% · xGA 1.25 |
| Sunderland | ④ CHE CS 20% · xGA 1.60 | ④ AVL (a) CS 20% · xGA 1.61 | ③ TOT CS 27% · xGA 1.33 | ④ LIV (a) CS 16% · xGA 1.84 | ④ NEW (a) CS 22% · xGA 1.51 | ③ NFO CS 32% · xGA 1.13 |
| Newcastle | ③ EVE CS 25% · xGA 1.40 | ④ FUL (a) CS 20% · xGA 1.62 | ④ ARS CS 14% · xGA 1.94 | ④ BHA (a) CS 16% · xGA 1.85 | ④ MUN CS 19% · xGA 1.69 | ③ SUN CS 31% · xGA 1.17 |
| Brentford | ④ BHA (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.75 | ③ EVE CS 30% · xGA 1.19 | ④ MUN (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.75 | ④ ARS CS 17% · xGA 1.77 | ④ MCI CS 15% · xGA 1.90 | ③ FUL (a) CS 25% · xGA 1.38 |
| Fulham | ③ NEW CS 25% · xGA 1.37 | ⑤ MCI (a) CS 10% · xGA 2.28 | ③ BOU CS 24% · xGA 1.44 | ④ TOT (a) CS 18% · xGA 1.71 | ④ EVE (a) CS 22% · xGA 1.51 | ④ BRE CS 21% · xGA 1.56 |
| Crystal Palace | ④ LIV CS 14% · xGA 1.97 | ④ COV (a) CS 22% · xGA 1.52 | ② HUL CS 35% · xGA 1.05 | ⑤ CHE (a) CS 12% · xGA 2.16 | ④ AVL (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.77 | ④ MUN CS 17% · xGA 1.80 |
| Coventry City | ④ EVE (a) CS 17% · xGA 1.79 | ③ CRY CS 26% · xGA 1.35 | ④ LEE (a) CS 15% · xGA 1.88 | ③ IPS CS 25% · xGA 1.40 | ⑤ MUN (a) CS 10% · xGA 2.30 | ④ AVL CS 18% · xGA 1.70 |
| Ipswich Town | ④ BOU CS 18% · xGA 1.72 | ④ TOT (a) CS 14% · xGA 1.96 | ④ AVL CS 19% · xGA 1.67 | ④ COV (a) CS 22% · xGA 1.53 | ④ LEE (a) CS 16% · xGA 1.84 | ④ NEW CS 18% · xGA 1.72 |
| Hull City | ⑤ ARS (a) CS 7% · xGA 2.63 | ⑤ BHA CS 13% · xGA 2.04 | ④ CRY (a) CS 18% · xGA 1.72 | ④ NFO CS 21% · xGA 1.56 | ⑤ BOU (a) CS 13% · xGA 2.05 | ④ TOT CS 16% · xGA 1.83 |
Where the numbers come from
Our model rates every club's attack and defence, adjusts for the opponent and home advantage, and turns that into the goals each side is expected to score. A clean sheet is the chance the opponent scores none. The next ~2 gameweeks are the sharpest; further out the numbers are less certain.
In FPL a clean sheet is worth 4 points to goalkeepers and defenders and 1 to midfielders, so the teams at the top of this page are where to look for defensive picks. For the overall picture, see the fixture difficulty ticker.