FPL's Biggest Flops So Far: 5 Pre-Season Favourites That Haven't Clicked

Football is so unpredictable, and you can really see it when you look back at August. Before the FPL season started there was huge hype around certain players. A couple of months later, plenty of them haven't delivered. So I made a list of the biggest FPL flops this season and dug out what people were tweeting about them before GW1.

I don't want to be negative about anyone. I made the same mistakes as everyone else: it's never possible to predict which players will perform best. I just thought it would be fun to see which players got the biggest hype (measured by ownership and community buzz) and turned out to be the most disappointing.

I really think every one of these picks had a good case in August, made by people who know the game well, and I bought into most of them myself. A couple of these players could easily be on a "best picks" list by Christmas, and I wouldn't rule out some of them being stars for the rest of the season.

How I picked them

I started with every player owned by at least 8% of the 8.9 million FPL managers who played GW1 and sorted them by how far their ownership has fallen since. A big sell-off on its own doesn't make a flop, so I also compared each player's points with players in the same position who started the season at a similar price.

Then I checked how much they were talked about. For each player I counted how many of 100 big FPL accounts on X posted about him in the four weeks before the GW1 deadline. Not every post was a recommendation (there's always someone pushing back, and I've included a few of those too), but these were the names everyone was discussing.

Ownership and points from FPL, after GW8. GW1 ownership is a share of the 8.9 million managers who played GW1; "now" is FPL's current figure, out of 11.2 million. Quotes below are from FPL accounts on X in the weeks before GW1; I've left the names out.

1. Szoboszlai: the safe pick that stopped being safe

Szoboszlai was the sensible choice at £7.0m: the Liverpool midfielder who played every week, took set pieces and could pick up points at both ends. Some drafts even dropped Wirtz to fit him in.

Szoboszlai is such a beautiful all round player.

Not everyone was sold. The most-liked post about him that month was a fair challenge:

Szoboszlai scored 1 open play goal last year... How essential can he really be?

The minutes did come at first: 90, 90, 90, 90 and 80 in the first five gameweeks. The returns didn't, and then a hamstring injury arrived.

21 points is exactly the median for a midfielder who started at £6.5-7.5m. That's average, not awful, but he was owned by over 40% of managers as a set-and-forget pick.

Was he unlucky? Partly. His 0.49 expected goals and assists per 90 minutes is in the top 10% of midfielders, and he has one goal or assist to show for it. The chances were there; the finishing and the injury weren't kind to him.

2. Bruno Fernandes: one brilliant week

No midfielder was talked about more before the season: 41 of the 100 accounts posted about him. United had the kindest opening run on the fixture ticker, and he was on penalties and set pieces.

When you are comparing midfield trio of PL teams, Bruno Fernandes just changes the discussion completely.

The captain debate is really just Bruno or Haaland.

And for one week, he was everything people hoped for. His 23-point haul against Ipswich in GW2 was a great day for anyone who owned him. It's also 23 of his 33 points this season. In his other six starts he scored 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 and 1, and he didn't play in GW8. I wrote more about United's attacking problems in Manchester United: can you find FPL points in the chaos?.

Was he unlucky? More than anyone on this list. His 0.59 expected goals and assists per 90 is in the top 4% of midfielders, he's on penalties and he started every league game until he sat out GW8. The underlying numbers say this is a player having a rough patch, not one who's lost it.

3. Tzolis: the bandwagon everyone jumped on

No one went from unknown to must-have faster than Tzolis. At £6.5m he looked like a cheap way into the champions' attack, and in the last week before the deadline one widely shared tracker of engaged managers had his ownership going from about 1% to over 40%.

Tzolis might be my new favourite player.

Is Tzolis under-priced?

There were warnings too. One popular "FPL traps" list put him alongside Calafiori and White as players who could catch people out early on.

He got the starts, but not many chances: 0.74 expected goals and assists across five games, and two goal involvements. Then a hamstring injury kept him out of the last three gameweeks. He's expected back on 1 November.

Was he unlucky? Not really. His 0.10 expected goals and assists per 90 is below average for a midfielder. He's new to the team, and new signings often take a while to settle.

4. Luke Shaw: the budget defender with a great record

The case for Luke Shaw was simple. He started all 38 league games last season and kept 10 clean sheets, and United opened against Hull and Ipswich. A £4.5m starter with good fixtures.

How have I only just now noticed that Luke Shaw started all 38 games last season. Incredible 😂

United fans were more worried than FPL managers, mostly about him being the only left-back for a long season:

Luke Shaw is our only LB option going into a 60 game season. What could go wrong!!

United didn't keep a clean sheet in their first seven games, and Shaw's best week was 4 points. He's now out injured with no return date. His 12 points are below the median of 16 for defenders who started at £4.0-5.0m.

Was he unlucky? A little. A cheap defender is a bet on his team's defence, and United's hasn't held up. That's not something you could pin on him in August.

5. O'Reilly: the clever pick that needed minutes

O'Reilly was the exciting one: a £6.5m Manchester City left-back who moves into midfield, with the attacking threat to score goals and assists as well as clean sheets and defensive contributions. When he started the Community Shield in that role, a lot of people took it as confirmation.

O'Reilly also starts. The template breaker has arrived.

He is one of the only defenders in the game that can easily be better than most DEFCON guys.

The role turned out to be real. The minutes didn't: he's started only two of City's last five league games, and a defender who comes off at 60 minutes can't earn clean-sheet points. His 13 points are well below the median of 24 for defenders who started at £6.0-7.0m.

Was he unlucky? On threat, yes: his 0.32 expected goals and assists per 90 is in the top 2% of defenders. Rotation at City is the hardest thing in FPL to predict, and it's caught out plenty of people over the years.

Also worth a mention

• Pedro Porro went from 17.9% to 4.8% owned: he missed GW1 injured and has only played 223 minutes all season.
• Ollie Watkins was 10% owned at GW1 and then moved to Al Hilal. No one could have planned for that.

And two players who were sold but are doing fine: Mbeumo (39% → 21%) and Semenyo (26% → 7.5%) both score at or above the players around their price. Not every sell-off is a flop.

What I take from it

Three of the five (Szoboszlai, Shaw and Tzolis) are injured right now, which is mostly bad luck. Bruno Fernandes and O'Reilly are more interesting: their underlying numbers are among the best in their positions, so both could come good if the minutes and the fixtures do.

If you picked any of them in August, you weren't wrong to. Plenty of people I respect did the same, and so did I. It's early, and the season always throws up surprises.

If you're still holding any of them and want a second opinion on your squad, try the check below.