Thierno Barry in FPL: He Finally Converted. Can He Do It Against Better Teams?

Two weeks ago, Thierno Barry was the forward I kept looking at and not buying. Everton's striker was getting into all the right positions and scoring from almost none of them. Now he's the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) story of the week: the winner at Newcastle, then two goals and an assist against Coventry for a 16-point haul in Gameweek 10, and 192,882 net transfers in over 48 hours.

The question I want to answer is the one behind that rush of transfers: he's started converting, but can he do it against better teams? Because that's what his next five fixtures are.

Two weeks ago: all chances, few goals

After Gameweek 8, Barry had 3 goals from 5.08 expected goals (xG) and 30 points. He went without a goal in five of his first eight games, and some of the misses were big ones: 1.48 xG at Bournemouth in Gameweek 2 and no goal, 0.67 at Tottenham and no goal.

Expected goals measure the quality of a player's chances: 5.08 xG means a typical finisher would have scored about five. Barry had scored three. That gap is the kind I usually expect to close over time, but nobody can tell you when.

Then it clicked

It closed in two games. At Newcastle in Gameweek 9 he scored the only goal from 1.29 xG (9 points); against Coventry in Gameweek 10 he scored twice and assisted once from 0.92 xG (16 points).

His season is now 6 goals from 7.29 xG, so he's still finishing about 1.3 goals below his chances, not above them. That matters: this isn't a player on a lucky streak who's due to cool off. Over his last four appearances (Gameweeks 7–10) he scored 3 goals from 2.89 xG, almost exactly what the chances were worth.

The core question: can he do it against better teams?

Here's the uncomfortable part. Split his season by how hard FPL rates the opponent:

Opponent (FPL difficulty)	Games	Goals	xG	xG per 90	Points per game
Hard (4–5)	3	0	2.16	0.78	2.0
Medium (3)	3	1	2.34	0.81	4.3
Easy (1–2)	4	5	2.79	0.73	9.0

Against Bournemouth, Chelsea and Arsenal he scored nothing and averaged 2 points. Five of his six goals came against the easier teams, Coventry included.

But look at the xG per 90 column. He gets just as many chances against the hard teams (0.78 xG per 90) as against the easy ones (0.73). Good defences haven't stopped him getting into positions; he just hasn't finished them yet. Three games and 249 minutes is a small sample, and it's the finishing, not the chances, that is the noisy part.

That's the tension, and his next five games test it directly:

Gameweek	Opponent	FPL difficulty	FPL Cat model projection
11	Brentford (A)	4	4.3 pts
12	Liverpool (H)	4	4.4 pts
13	Aston Villa (A)	3	4.3 pts
14	Fulham (H)	2	4.6 pts
15	Brighton (A)	4	3.9 pts

What the FPL Cat model says

The FPL Cat model projects Barry for 21.4 points over Gameweeks 11–15, the 2nd-best forward in the game for that run, behind only Haaland (28.7 at £15.8m) and ahead of Isak (20.2 at £9.2m). It's built on chances and fixtures rather than recent goals, and it takes the tough opponents into account: 3.9 to 4.6 points a game, not the 9 he averages against easy teams.

At his price nobody is close. Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) is projected 19.4 and Gonzalo (£5.9m) 17.1. He's also Everton's penalty taker, which keeps his floor up when open-play chances are scarce. The model's range over Gameweeks 11–16 runs from 11 points in a bad run to 44 in a good one, with a middle of 26.

The one thing I'd watch is minutes: the model expects about 70–75 a game, and he's been subbed off in four of his ten starts.

My verdict

I'd buy him, with my eyes open. The goals against Newcastle and Coventry didn't come from nowhere: he has been getting chances all season, against good teams as well as bad ones, and the FPL Cat model rates him the second-best forward for the next five gameweeks at £5.7m. What I don't expect is another 16 at Brentford or against Liverpool; those are the games where his zero against hard teams gets tested. Fulham at home in Gameweek 14 is the one I'd circle.

If you already own him, I wouldn't sell into the hard fixtures. If you're choosing between him and a forward who's scoring above his xG, I'd take the one whose chances are real.

One caution: Gameweek 10 is still being played, and injuries during the international break can change everything before the Gameweek 11 deadline on Saturday 21 November. Barry's player page has his latest projection and fixtures, and you can try him in your team with the FPL planner.